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REAL ESTATE:DECEMBER OUTLOOK:SALES IN TIER-1 AND TIER-2 CITI

时间:2018-01-05 09:10    作者:admin     点击:

What's new
We expect nationwide GFA sold to grow 6% 博天堂918注册YoY in December and thegrowth rate in tier-1/2 cities to be close to 10% YoY, outstrippinggrowth in tier-3 and tier-4 cities for the first timethis year. We expect this trend to continue into 1Q18.
Comments
November review: Property sales in tier-1/2 cities significantlyrebounded. New home GFA sold in the cities we monitor grew 15.7%MoM and declined 3.6% YoY in November . New home GFA sold in ultra-high-level and high-level citiesdeclined 13.0% YoY . Highfrequencydata showed that property sales in tier-1 and tier-2 citiessaw a recovery after the 19th CPC Congress. We believe that thenationwide growth rate of GFA sold will turn positive on a YoY basisreaching around 7 % YoY in November . ASP inthe cities we monitor remained flat MoM and rose 13.7% YoY inNovember . ASP in ultra-high-level citiesonly rose 4.0% YoY.
December outlook: Property sales in tier-1/2 cities to continue torecovering; nationwide property sales to maintain high single-digitgrowth. Nationwide, GFA sold may grow 6 % YoY in December andgrowth rate of GFA sold in tier-1/2 cities may rise to 9% YoY inDecember , outstripping growth in tier-3/4cities .
Quick view on 3-month horizon: Property sales in tier-1/2 cities andin tier-3/4 cities will likely diverge in early 2018. We expect GFA soldin tier-1/2 cities to grow more than 10% YoY in 1Q18, with GFA sold intier-3/4 cities to fall 10% YoY on a high base. Thus, we expectnationwide GFA to fall around 5% YoY.
Valuation and recommendation
For A-shares, we prefer leading developers with a solid presence intier-1/2 cities, such as Vanke, Poly and CMSK. CFLD, RiseSun andWorldUnion also merit attention. The H-share property sector mayface profit-taking pressure in the near term but a sharp correction isunlikely, in our view. We suggest developers with a solid presence intier-1/2 cities, visible sales growth and attractive valuations –e.g.,COLI, Longfor, R&F, Yuzhou and KWG. Risks: Further policytightening; economic downturn.

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